CNET often allows its editors to engage in baseless hypothesizing which results in a lot of subpar content. Obviously, publications like to join the Apple guessing games because readers cannot get enough and Apple will not confirm or deny any of it.
But I think CNET editor Erica Ogg is dead right about her most recent observations at Apple's WWDC (though not all of her conclusions). I want to append to her analysis, and extend to you why I'm an Apple investor and will continue to be one after Steve Jobs' inevitable retirement.
In short, Apple's most recent announcements regarding the UI changes of Snow Leopard suggest a more touch-friendly operating system.
I won't regurgitate her observations, but I want to append a couple to them.
- The new Finder has an icon sizing control right on the main window. Is sizing icons all that important in our daily traditional use of computers? Is it important enough to give it prominent positioning on every Finder window? Of course not, so what's the purpose? Because it's necessary to control icon sizing accommodate for fat & skinny fingers on a touch screen.
- Also, I'd go further than the author and say that Stacks will fully replace file navigation in touch-based devices. With just a few more features, it can become a usable file manager.
What inferences can we draw from a more touch-friendly operating system?
Erica suggests the most commonly cited rumor, the infamous Apple tablet. But, we can go deeper than that with what we know about Apple's existing business.
Yesterday, I played with Sony's new 8" P Series notebook yesterday which runs a full Windows Vista. It's a neat hardware device, but it's hardly usable trying to track the pointer around to click Window controls and buttons on such a small screen with such an impressive resolution. Microsoft has not given much evidence that they are attempting to redesign Windows to scale down to a product that size. Nor have they suggested that they would scale up Windows Mobile.
So it remains overwhelming difficult to develop for this form factor as well as introduce new products around it. It's a useless laptop. Useless not for the hardware but for the software. If the notebook had a well-designed OS to go with it, it'd be a more tempting little machine that's very portable.
Snow Leopard has already taken a few more steps to become a good OS for devices like this, both with and without touch capability, but I'm compelled to believe OS X 10.6 will bring the big UI changes that will bring touch ability to the more mainstream general purpose computers. For example, new ways to close windows, minimize and maximize windows, and navigate menus are all functions that will be important to a touch-based device, but without such a device, the UI changes need not be announced. Apple wouldn't reveal such changes until a device is around the corner.
Begin thinking about the changes they're making to the UI and there are some irresistible inferences to draw. Undoubtedly, Apple is moving to touch-based devices.
Here are my best guesses for the two most popular of Apple's product lines: the mobile devices and more traditional computers.
- Touch-based devices sized from 3.5" (iPhone) to 8" using touch-only navigation with cellular technology in all of them.
- Always-on Internet actually makes the portability useful. After initial release, Apple can offer cellular-less versions as manufacturing prices drop like the iPod Touch.
- Subscription contracts make producing these devices extremely profitable and tempting for consumers (through the infamous contract subsidies).
- Traditional hybrid computers with screen 10" and up. All will provide both touch and keyboard ability. Laptops will have both (the infamous tablet). Desktops will have both too, but later.
A line this may be two years away. And when they come out, how long will it take the competition to replicate these products that personally, I find compelling and would like to buy? Apple has a multi-year lead. The Palm Pre is the first arguable contender to the iPhone. It was released *two years* after the iPhone. That's an eternity in technology, and one that makes for huge margins. Microsoft is showing no signs of competing the same space Apple is headed. In fact, they're fighting manufacturers in the netbook space.
I'll have a ton of Apple stock when that happens.
I'll continue to hold Apple stock so long as I can reasonably foresee their product line better than the average of the stock's shares and so long as I agree with Apple's direction.
Right now, I'm on-board with their strategy 100%. And I'll buy more if Steve Jobs retires soon, because I don't need blind faith in their leader to see where they're headed. Most others do, and that will be a great buying opportunity when they unload.
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